How will the White Strip Old Hen Egg Futures develop in 2015?

1. White striped old hen avian flu and post-avian flu market throughout the year - 2014 market summary

 

In 2014, eggs mainly came out of four waves. The first wave (January 1, 2014 - February 26, 2014) went out of the down market. Since January 2014, due to the impact of bird flu H7N9, consumers have panic and consumers are “talking about chicken”. As a result of the sharp decline in egg consumption, egg futures have fallen sharply on the occasion of the outbreak of avian flu. The second wave (February 26, 2014 - July 11, 2014) went out of the rising market. Generally speaking, during the avian flu period, the laying hens will be heavily hunted, so one or two months after the bird flu, the eggs The stock of chickens is obviously insufficient, resulting in a decrease in the circulation of eggs in the market, and consumers have resumed the daily demand for eggs. The phenomenon that supply and demand cannot be connected in time has led to an increase in egg prices. The third wave (July 11, 2014 - September 22, 2014) went out of the down market, and the egg rose out of the 2008 high. At the same time, in order to prevent the risk of egg squatting, the company has increased the egg delivery factory warehouse (warehouse). The fourth wave (September 22, 2014-present) went out of the rising market, and the seasonality of the eggs was very obvious. The boost of the Mid-Autumn National Day boosted the egg price and thus went out of the seasonal rise.

 

2, whose hand is stirring the price - supply and demand analysis

 

1. China's eggs are self-sufficient and export is small

 

China's eggs are self-sufficient. Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Liaoning, Jiangsu and other provinces are the main egg-producing areas. In the past 30 years, the distribution of egg-producing areas has stabilized, but the share of production in different regions has changed. China is not only a big egg producing country, but also a big consumer country. In recent years, China's egg demand has maintained a steady and rising trend. China's egg consumption market is mainly in China, and it is characterized by more north and less south.

 

The flow of egg logistics in China is relatively clear, which can be simply summarized as flowing from the north China and northeast regions with large output to the southeast and south China, as well as major cities such as Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai. The provinces with large egg outflows include Hebei, Henan, Liaoning, Shandong and other provinces. The biggest gap between supply and demand is in Guangdong Province. The annual inflow is about 1.6 million tons, followed by Shanghai and other places. Most other provinces are generally in supply and demand. Balanced state. Although China is the world's largest egg-producing country, its share of the international egg trade market is less than 10%. The main destination of China's egg exports is Hong Kong, accounting for about 70% of the export share.

 

2. Some retail investors withdraw, supply has periodicity

 

There is a certain periodicity in the supply of eggs. It takes about 4 to 5 months for the laying hen to end the brooding and breeding period, and it will enter the laying period after 20 weeks of age. From the 6th to 11th month, the egg production rate can reach 90%, the egg production rate will drop to 80% in 12 months, the egg production peak can generally last for 5 months, and after the 16th month, the egg production rate will be When it fell below 70%, the chicken farmers began to eliminate the laying hens. The egg production rate during the peak period is positively correlated with the egg production throughout the year. The peak of egg production, the supply of eggs is large, the price of eggs is lowered, the egg production is low, the supply of eggs is insufficient, and the price of eggs is rising. The cyclical changes in the supply of laying hens directly affect the changes in egg supply and prices.

 

From the overall perspective of the laying hen industry, some retail investors have withdrawn from the laying hen market this year. Affected by poor breeding efficiency and bird flu epidemic situation, the overall loss of the egg industry in the first two years was serious. The loss experience for two years brought a big psychological shadow to the farmers. The bird flu epidemic caused the laying hens to be eliminated in large areas. The chicks were hunted and killed, and many farms had significantly reduced or even withdrawn from the laying hen industry. Since April this year, egg prices and breeding benefits have gradually recovered to a higher level, and the domestic laying hens industry has gradually recovered. At the same time, according to the laying period of the laying hen, the egg price will remain optimistic next year in the recovery period of the breeding cycle.

 

3. The pen is cautious, the egg supply is still tense

 

The relationship between supply and demand determines price fluctuations. When the demand exceeds supply, the price rises, and when the supply exceeds demand, the price falls. As one of the most daily consumer goods of the public, eggs have maintained a steady and rising trend from the change of Chinese poultry egg consumption in 2000-2012, with an annual growth rate of about 2.52%. Because the consumption is relatively stable, the change in the supply of eggs determines the basic trend of the egg market, so the price of the market is determined by the producer, not the circulator. The total production of eggs per day is determined by the number of chickens. At present, the practitioners in the Chinese egg industry are mainly small farmers, lacking the ability to judge the macro trend of the market, which has caused the instability of the production scale, resulting in large fluctuations in egg prices. In 2013, egg chicken farming suffered long-term losses, and the bird flu market was encountered at the end of the year. As a result, the number of laying hens in the first quarter of 2014 dropped sharply year-on-year, directly affecting the annual supply of eggs. In 2014, the spot price of eggs showed the highest wholesale price of 5.55 yuan/kg at the end of August. The sales price of some sales areas exceeded 7 yuan/kg, which is called “rocket egg”.

 

In the process of high egg stocks this year, chicken farmers have been using delayed elimination to increase the amount of eggs they produce in order to gain higher profits. The reduction in the supply of eliminated chickens has also led to an increase in the price of chickens eliminated in the past few months, which also provides evidence for the delayed phase-out of farmers. This phenomenon fully illustrates the delayed elimination of farmers. In the face of such high breeding profits, although the progress of the replenishment is insufficient, the time of laying hens has increased significantly. Through our understanding, the farmers now have 600-day-old laying hens. Less, some people even raised chickens for 800 days, and after going to the feathers, they went up to 800 days to go up, which greatly exceeded the market's expectations. It was originally expected that after the National Day, as the price of broilers fell, farmers would be eliminated. However, as long as there are benefits, the farmers will not be eliminated. If you do not eliminate this part of the field, you will not be able to make up the young chickens. If this logic is used, only the old chickens can’t be raised, and this will affect next year. The progress of the broiler chicken. According to the spot dealer, the farmer indicated that his psychological line is about 4.45 yuan / kg, and only the psychological line will consider the elimination of the old chicken. Judging from the research situation, farmers are generally cautious about the replenishment of the column, and the low inventory will still lead to the main reason for the high egg prices in the 15th year.

 

At present, the laying of laying hens in China is mainly based on retail farming. The scale of chicken farms is generally small. The scale of breeding is mainly in the scale of 2000-9999 and 10000-49999. Generally speaking, the scale of laying hens is more than 10,000. The laying hen farm can be called a standardized laying hen scale farm. At present, the standardized scale of Chinese hen culture is about 30%, and the overall scale needs to be improved. At the same time, the overall laying hen industry in China lacks overall planning, and farmers have a large blindness in the scale of breeding. In the rising stage of aquaculture efficiency, farmers are blindly expanding the scale of farming regardless of their actual conditions and overall domestic breeding conditions, resulting in a decline in economic benefits. At the same time, they will lead to oversupply of market eggs and vicious competition, resulting in a drop in egg prices. Conversely, in the case of widespread loss of farming benefits, farmers usually choose to abandon farming or reduce the scale of farming, resulting in a reduction in the concentration of market supply, resulting in higher egg prices.

 

Although the current farming profit is very high, this year's chicken fills are not very positive, because the laying hens usually have to start production in 4 months, 5 months into the peak of laying, and the November column means It is only in March that it can be started, and every spring and autumn is a high incidence of avian flu. In order to avoid the risk of contracting a group of laying hens, farmers usually do not choose chickens in winter. This also laid the pattern that the stock market is still tight next year. In addition, there is one thing that needs attention, that is, the impact of environmental protection policies on the stockpiles. In recent years, the society has paid more and more attention to environmental protection issues, and the pollution of poultry farming is more serious, especially in the environmental protection bureaus of several large farming areas in Hebei and Hubei. Aquaculture pollution is very important, and the new capacity in Hubei is difficult to approve. This part of the factors has also led to the inability to increase the number of columns.

 

3. Farewell to the low-cost era - cost analysis

 

Eggs are an indispensable agricultural product in China's vegetable basket project. In recent years, the cost of laying hens has increased year by year. The cost of laying hens mainly includes feed cost, chicken cost, disease control cost, labor cost, water and electricity fee, and depreciation of fixed assets equipment. Any change in these factors will affect the cost change of eggs to varying degrees. In the overall production cost structure, the feed cost accounted for the most, accounting for 60%-70% of the total cost. The main constituent materials of the hen feed were corn and soybean meal, accounting for 60%-65% and 20% of the feed cost. 25%; the cost of chicken seedlings accounts for about 15%-20%. The cost of chickling determines the quality of the chicks to a certain extent. The quality of the chicks depends on the growth rate of the laying hens, the amount of eggs laid, the disease resistance, and the survival rate. A potential factor affecting the price of eggs; while labor costs have continued to rise in recent years, the proportion of this cost in the overall cost has also expanded year by year; in addition, with the rapid development of the laying hen industry, the type and frequency of disease have increased significantly. The trend, the proportion of various vaccines, quarantine, medicines and other disease prevention and treatment costs for chicken disease prevention and treatment accounted for a significant increase in the total cost of raising, and the average annual growth in recent years is about 5%.

 

Looking forward to 2015, we expect that the cost of laying hens will continue to rise. There are three reasons. First, labor costs and disease control fees continue to rise year by year. Second, with the high profit of breeding, the price of chickens will also go out next year. The market is on the rise; third, the low price of feed raw materials in the second half of this year is difficult to reproduce in the future, and will also go out of the market in the future.